Talk:Outmaneuver/@comment-91.193.208.115-20151207013551

Honestly I see little point for this talent considering we can get a Predator for the same price. They both do roughly similar things - passively boost attack effectiveness without requiring an action. Outmaneuver effectively cancels a potential positive result on a def dice while Predator potentially turns a negative result on att dice into a positive one.

Chances for OM to trigger and provide an extra hit are 37.5% if the enemy doesn't have a focus token and 62.5% if he does (compared with a hypothetical scenario of enemy still having his extra def dice).

Chances for Predator to trigger and provide an extra hit depend on the number of your attack dice but i'd assume nobody would waste the talent on a ship with less than 3 dice. In the worst case scenario of having 3 att dice (it gets better with more dice) the chances of Predator providing an extra hit are as follows:

A. If you don't have a focus token, there's an 87.5% chance you'll roll a negative result (blank or eye) on at least one of the dice. Then, there's 50% chance that a Predator re-roll will turn it into a hit. That's a 43.75% chance of Predator  providing an extra hit each attack.

B. If you do have a focus token, there's a 57,8% chance you'll roll a negative result (blank) on at least one of the dice. Then, there's a 75% chance Predator re-roll will turn it into a hit or an eye. That's a 43.33% chance of Predator  providing an extra hit each attack.

So, Predator has a pretty good chance of triggering regardless of whether or not you have the focus token. Outmaneuver is slightly worse than Predator  if the enemy has no focus and much better if he does, but here's the catch: Predator can be triggered every single attack and if the target has low PS, it gets even better. Outmaneuver on the other hand works only if you manage to flank the opponent, which is easier said than done. As a side note, it also only works if the opponent has any def dice at all - which again isn't certain since we already have a 0 def Decimator and Ghost is coming soon as well.

In other words, if you feel absolutely confident that:

1. Enemy will use 3+ PS ships.

AND

2. You will be able flank him consistently.

AND

3. He will have his focus tokens up when you attack and would be using them to defend himself...

... then taking Outmaneuver over Predator makes sense. In every other scenario Predator wins hands down due to much better reliability. Frankly, considering how hard it is to make Outmaneuver work, I feel that the talent is just overpriced by 1 point. At 2, on maneuverable ships it would be a nice alternative for Lone Wolf. At a 3 points, it just can't compete except for some really specific scenarios (say, Falcon + C3PO).