Board Thread:Homebrew/@comment-31223609-20170206062436/@comment-454133-20171230185944

Conceptually I like it a lot, though I don't know whether it's too powerful or underpowered etc.

Dragoon could help you calculate these odds better than I can, but  I have a table on the Dice page that tells you the expected number of hits+crits for any number of dice up to 8. More usefully, This AnyDice Program lets you see in even more detail the odds of any guess being correct (it's the source of that table).

If you're rolling two dice, guess 1 and you have a 50% chance of being right and bumping it to 2. Thus the expected value of K-2SO is +0.5 damge. At 3 dice, you have even odds at 1 or 2 damage, so you might guess 2 and go for a third damage. In that case, on average he's worth +0.375 damage.

Though it has to be said, like C-3PO you could guess low to put a minimum on your damage, guaranteeing at least 1 damage gets rolled. Though this is less valuable than C-3PO, as a guaranteed one evade helps a lot more than a guaranteed one hit (which is easily evaded). And at that point, you should be flying a ship with Accuracy Corrector instead. ;)

Likewise a HWK has a primary value of one and you could always guess 0 or 1 and have a 50% chance of getting +1 damage (again, +0.5 damage on average), but if you're firing your HWK's primary, something has gone wrong.

For reference, Finn is +0.5 damage as long as you have a target lock etc to reroll blanks. If you can reroll any number of dice (e.g. lock), then he stays at +0.5 no matter your dice count, but drops a bit if you can only reroll 1 or 2 of many dice (because you could roll 3+ blanks and then Finn adds nothing to that). Another similar idea is Sunny Bounder, though she's working off of duplicates.

I'd be most worried, I suppose, about pairing him with something like Autoblaster or Autoblaster Turret. The turret would grant you a 50% chance of getting a 2nd damage if you guess 1 (which is worse than Accuracy Corrector), or a 25% chance of pushing 2 damage up to 3. With the cannon you could guess 3 and have a 12.5% chance of pushing it to 4, but there are better ways to do that. But you could guess 0 and almost guarantee at least one hit always gets rolled (rolling a crit would be the only bad result). That's stronger because there's no way to escape the hits of an autoblaster other than abilities that cancel them or switch them to focuses.

That's all on the raw roll. Your total damage improves with a focus token or lock. Let's say I roll 2 dice and guess 1, and I'm right. I rolled focus + hit, and now I have focus hit hit. I spend my focus and this gives me 3 damage. I don't know the right way to calculate that and I'm lazy, but as with C-3PO this improves the results you can get by guessing 1 or 0. And attacking gives you the target lock option, which is also potent. There may be interesting things PTL Norra could do when firing out her rear arc, e.g. guess 1, roll hit + focus, add 1 hit, spend lock to add a focus, spend focus token: total 4 hits. Likewise, focuses or locks help the Autoblasters since you add your damage based on the raw roll, and could then boost the damage by rerolling and focusing.

But again, I am unprepared to calculate the odds there. :)