Talk:Zuckuss/@comment-222.153.185.133-20161130234459/@comment-454133-20161201225649

Glad it was helpful (and sorry for the misunderstanding). I'm in the same boat -- I kinda intuitively assumed the attack die's advantage was wider with many dice, but as I look at it in practice, it doesn't necessarily accumulate to a huge effect.

On a single die basis, if both sides have focused, they're close to evenly matched (75% vs 62.5% per die, so 3/4ths chance vs almost 2/3rds). It's notably wider if only the attacker focuses (75% vs 37.5%, exactly double chance to roll a hit vs an evade). Even when both sides focus, it does end up mattering for the overall odds of the game, just not in a way I'd feel directly on an attack by attack basis.

Though I'm still extremely suspicious that I did the odds for multiple dice completely wrong. I believe the expected value formula fails when rolling multiple dice and adding the results -- for example, rolling 2d6 favors the center values (5, 6, 7, 8, 9) over the edges (2, 3, 11, 12, etc). I need to review my probability courses and see if there's a good way to calculate a 5 vs 5 attack without plotting huge probability tables. I'll try to correct my numbers if I find out they're bunk. (or if someone else in the know wants to correct me, I'd welcome it!)