Talk:Expose/@comment-67.213.80.99-20160909023531/@comment-454133-20170717161055

Those odds seem off, e.g. chance of 1 or fewer damage isn't 1.1%. Assuming my forumulas are correct on anydice.com:

3 attack with focus (or lock); without focus

Average damage 2.25 with focus; 1.5 without focus

Damage, % chance with focus; %chance without focus

0, 1.56 % ; 12.50 %

1, 14.06 % ; 37.50 %

2, 42.19 % ; 37.50 %

3, 42.19 % ; 12.50 %

4 attack with focus; without focus

Average damage 3 with focus; 2 without focus

Damage, % chance   with focus ; % chance without focus

0, 0.39 % ; 6.25 %

1, 4.69 % ; 25.00 %

2, 21.09 % ; 37.50 %

3, 42.19 % ; 25.00 %

4, 31.64 % ; 6.25 %

5 attack with focus; without focus

Average damage 3.75 with focus; 2.5 without focus

0, 0.10 % ; 3.13 %

1, 1.46 % ; 15.63 %

2, 8.79 % ; 31.25 %

3, 26.37 % ; 31.25 %

4, 39.55 % ; 15.63 %

5, 23.73 % ; 3.13%

So with a focus, going from 3 to 4 to 5 dice pushes your chances of 3+ hits from 42% to 74% to 90%, with the overflow significantly improving chances of breaking past defenses and getting hits/crits through.

(if those odds are correct, I should probably add them to the article, or to Dice)

But your overall point is correct. Expose+EI is tough to justify in a build. 7 points + stress + Elite+Mod slots occupied is a tough sell. However, increasing your average & max damage can be very important for overcoming enemy defenses. High agility, focus tokens, and evade tokens can make it difficult even to chip a foe to death; they can just shed everything you throw at them. A boost to your damage against an agile ace is easily the difference between no damage per turn and some damage per turn. Hence the value of the 12-point Punishing One title; never field Dengar without it. These days there's a variety of ways to get +1 attack, such as Jan Ors, Finn with a lock (actually +0.5 attack), Swarm Leader (up to +2 attack with the right conditions), etc. I've been flying various silly fleets that can accomplish 5 to 8 dice regularly, because they're crafted to do specifically that. When things go well, I can one-shot quite a few ships, even if they roll well on their defense (though that doesn't mean I win -- there's a lot more to x-wing than more dice). On the other hand, a lot of the 2-attack ships are currently suffering, because typical defensive options basically mean they won't be contributing damage except by luck. They used to be a great swarm tactic, but in the current meta, not so much. I'd say there could be some virtue to putting Expose + EI on a ship like Rear Admiral Chiraneau or Captain Oicunn (e.g. go from 4 dice to 5 at range 1, and your chances of inflicting  moderate   damage are reasonably high). Smashing through enemy defenses and cramming damage on enemy ships is kind of the role I imagine for a decimator. But it's also valuable to run a very cheap decimator with few fix'ns so you're not too points-invested in a single ship, so it's still tricky to make the case for Expose.