Talk:Zuckuss/@comment-222.153.185.133-20161130234459/@comment-454133-20161201234221

Found out AnyDice can do stuff like this, which is awesome. Here's a link to my calculations, which also shows charts with the actual chances of each amount of damage or evade. For example, 5 attack dice with focus has a 23% chance of 5 hits/crits, 40% for 4, 26% for 3, etc. The mean is 3.75, but it's worth seeing the full story.

Mean damage (treating hits and crits as the same result):

5 Attack with Focus: 3.75

5 Attack, no Focus: 2.50

3 Attack with Focus: 2.25

3 Attack, no Focus: 1.50

1 Attack with Focus: 0.75

1 Attack, no Focus: 0.50 5 Defense with Focus: 3.13

5 Defense, no Focus: 1.88

3 Defense with Focus: 1.88

3 Defense, no Focus: 1.13

1 Defense with Focus: 0.63

1 Defense, no Focus: 0.38



Suffice it to say, my initial calculations for mean were "accurate", but the charts on AnyDice show the distribution to be far more complicated. 5 focused attack dice are heavily weighted to produce 4 hits, and 5 unfocused defence dice are heavily weighted to produce 2 hits, but the chances for results surrounding them are plenty fat themselves. Like knowing that the central numbers are favored in 2d6, it's nice to see the full story.

If I understood the coding rules better, presumably the attack dice I'm defining in the calculations could be modified to represent the crit result's Direct Hit chance, which is 7/33 (21.2%). But it doesn't allow non-integer values on the side of a die, so that could be complicated. And it's harder to calculate the damage odds of Major Explosion or Console Fire, and nonsense to try to represent other effects in terms of damage (like Thrust Control Fire). We could just count crits as 2 damage, since the extra effects could sometimes be almost as good as another damage (e.g. disabling the enemy's next attack, etc).

 But I say nuts to that - crits are hits for my purposes. :)

BTW, here's the full program in case the above link fails:

output 5d{1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0} named "5 Attack with Focus"

output 5d{1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0} named "5 Defense with Focus"

output 5d{1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0} named "5 Attack, no Focus"

output 5d{1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0} named "5 Defense, no Focus"

output 3d{1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0} named "3 Attack with Focus"

output 3d{1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0} named "3 Defense with Focus"

output 3d{1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0} named "3 Attack, no Focus"

output 3d{1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0} named "3 Defense, no Focus"

output 1d{1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0} named "1 Defense with Focus"

output 1d{1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0} named "1 Defense, no Focus"